The inflexibility of energy flexibility

Born and raised in Europe in the mid-1980s, I grew up believing that energy was as reliable as running water. Flip a switch, and the light comes on. Plug in an appliance, and it powers up instantly.

This sense of reliability only strengthened over the years. Sure, I remember the occasional evenings when power would abruptly go out, and we’d have to light a few candles to finish dinner. But as the years passed, we lit our candles less and less. Electricity was always there, so ubiquitous and unquestionable. The only exception was when I travelled to Mozambique to visit family in the 1990s, where dark nights happened more often, and I’d realise that there’s a lot happening behind the scenes to keep the lights on.

Europe's remarkable grid stability

Photography source: NASA on Unsplash

Today, in most of Europe, power outages are largely a thing of the past. In 2020, most EU countries clocked less than 1 hour of power outage the whole year per household. Homes in Portugal and Spain were out of power for about 30 minutes, and Slovenia recorded as little as 6 minutes without power.

With power so reliable, it's easy to take electricity for granted and overlook the immense complexity behind delivering this stability - the continuous act of perfectly balancing supply and demand. But striking this balance is only getting trickier: demand for electricity is growing, and both supply and demand are becoming more variable (try playing this little SimCity-like game, developed by the UK’s grid operator, and see for yourself). To add fuel to the fire, we need to electrify everything and decarbonise electricity to avert a climate catastrophe - both of which add even more pressure to our grids.

The growing challenge of electricity demand

Let’s talk about demand. Transportation accounts for roughly 16% of global greenhouse emissions, so we’re rapidly electrifying how we move. In Europe, nearly one in five cars sold last year was an electric vehicle (EV). These EVs are essentially giant batteries on wheels. For instance, the energy needed in a week to charge a Volkswagen ID.3 a couple of times would be enough to power a single LED lightbulb continuously for almost 3 years. Imagine when most of our cars are electric: we’ll be pulling massive amounts of energy from the grid in brief bursts at increasingly unpredictable times.

The supply side: transitioning to renewables

Photography source: Appolinary Kalashnikova on Unsplash

Building grid flexibility

To meet rising and more variable demand, while relying on intermittent renewable sources, we need more flexibility in the grid. This can come in several flavours. For example, if we can "ask" big consumers to lower their consumption during peak demand or increase it during periods of excess supply, that helps (this is called Demand Response). And if we can store surplus electricity to release it when demand outstrips supply, that helps even more (Energy Storage).

Some regions are already ahead of the curve. While most countries can import and export electricity to balance their grids, isolated areas—like islands—can't rely on this as much. Places like the UK, Hawaii, and Malta are therefore advancing energy storage and demand response technologies faster than continental Europe.

The EU's storage challenge

Photography source: Eva Smongor on Unsplash

If the EU is serious about decarbonising its grids, it will need to embrace these innovative solutions too. The European Commission estimates that energy storage capacity will need to grow from 60 GW in 2022 (mostly pumped hydro) to over 200 GW by 2030 and more than 600 GW by 2050. Much of this growth will come from chemical storage—meaning batteries.

The grids of the future

One thing is clear: if we want a grid that can handle the growing, variable demand for electricity while supplying power from intermittent sources like solar and wind, the grids of the next decade will look very different from those of the last century. They will likely be less centralised, relying not on a handful of major producers but on a more distributed web of local producers. We’ll need technology that can make demand responsive to available supply in real time. There will have to be much more room for energy storage, whether through large-scale battery farms or distributed storage in homes and communities.

The future grid will need to be far more flexible, open to new services and business models that can keep it resilient, ensuring that carbon-free electricity becomes as dependable as the lights we’ve grown used to—no candles required.